By now, we know that President Obama’s executive action on immigration is likely coming. (Fox News says it could come as early as next Friday, but the White House says that President Obama still hasn’t made up his mind.) Politically, the question is whether such action would be a smart move -- or a dumb one. MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin has a good look at the political pros and cons here. The pros: It’s the best chance for Obama to reform the system in the short term (especially since House Republicans are unwilling to pass their own legislation), and it will fire up Latino voters, who will be a critical bloc to Democrats’ success in 2016. The cons: It would spark a policy fight with Republicans (the outcome of which is impossible to predict), and it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014. But maybe the biggest political reason to undertake executive action is that it would ensure the action becomes a key part of the 2016 race. Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go -- and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election. Politically speaking, Obama taking the action could be the biggest favor he does for Hillary Clinton (if she ends up running). Thursday, November 13, 2014
A Favor to Hillary? Obama's Political Pros and Cons for Immigration Action
By now, we know that President Obama’s executive action on immigration is likely coming. (Fox News says it could come as early as next Friday, but the White House says that President Obama still hasn’t made up his mind.) Politically, the question is whether such action would be a smart move -- or a dumb one. MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin has a good look at the political pros and cons here. The pros: It’s the best chance for Obama to reform the system in the short term (especially since House Republicans are unwilling to pass their own legislation), and it will fire up Latino voters, who will be a critical bloc to Democrats’ success in 2016. The cons: It would spark a policy fight with Republicans (the outcome of which is impossible to predict), and it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014. But maybe the biggest political reason to undertake executive action is that it would ensure the action becomes a key part of the 2016 race. Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go -- and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election. Politically speaking, Obama taking the action could be the biggest favor he does for Hillary Clinton (if she ends up running).
By now, we know that President Obama’s executive action on immigration is likely coming. (Fox News says it could come as early as next Friday, but the White House says that President Obama still hasn’t made up his mind.) Politically, the question is whether such action would be a smart move -- or a dumb one. MSNBC’s Benjy Sarlin has a good look at the political pros and cons here. The pros: It’s the best chance for Obama to reform the system in the short term (especially since House Republicans are unwilling to pass their own legislation), and it will fire up Latino voters, who will be a critical bloc to Democrats’ success in 2016. The cons: It would spark a policy fight with Republicans (the outcome of which is impossible to predict), and it could alienate the white voters Democrats lost in 2014. But maybe the biggest political reason to undertake executive action is that it would ensure the action becomes a key part of the 2016 race. Every Republican running for president would have to denounce the move. And then the GOP contest then would turn into who’s tougher against the action: Do they promise to deport the undocumented immigrants (if Obama’s ultimate executive action entails allowing them to stay in the country)? Like we saw in 2008 and 2012, that would push the eventual GOP nominee farther to the right than he or she might want to go -- and make it harder for the nominee to return to the middle in the general election. Politically speaking, Obama taking the action could be the biggest favor he does for Hillary Clinton (if she ends up running). 
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment