Dick Morris: Regarding Polls, Turnout Is Everything
Morris spoke with "America Talks Live" host J.D. Hayworth about the myriad polls out there and how to read them.
"Which poll is right?" Morris said. "The real answer is you don't know yet; it's impossible to know yet because they're all based on assumptions about turnout.
"You have some groups that are voting almost unanimously for Hillary, like blacks. Turnout is a huge deal. In the past, in the 2000, blacks were 10 percent of the vote. In '04, they were 11 percent of the vote. In '08 and '12, they were 13 percent of the vote and there's no real change in the proportion of population that's African-American. So what shall it be? You just don't know."
Morris said some groups of voters, like blacks and young people, are "less enthusiastic" about voting in 2016 than they have in elections past. That means the poll numbers have to be adjusted.
"We don't know until we can actually tell turnout," Morris said. "Remember, polling is very good at telling you how people will vote, but it's very bad at telling you whether they're going to vote, because they don't even know themselves."
Morris is the author of the bestselling book "Armageddon: How Trump Can Beat Hillary," written with Eileen McGann and published by Humanix Books, available at Barnes & Noble and Amazon.
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